Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 6, 2024 18:39:35 GMT -6
bitcoin helps with this
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 7, 2024 17:42:51 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 8, 2024 12:44:57 GMT -6
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holmanjp
Thegn (3,741)
Aug 10, 2019
Valhalla
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Post by holmanjp on Apr 8, 2024 15:00:44 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 8, 2024 15:10:35 GMT -6
Thomas Young @tomyoungjr To further the misunderstanding of risk reward in a logarithmic world the distribution of the linear variance on a log plot is not a normal distribution.
The downside deviation from predicted model is limited to about 1 Standard Deviation vs. the upside that can go slightly over 2 standard deviations.
This is an important point to consider on the Power Law for Bitcoin.
If you consider 1 standard deviation downside to be a de facto floor -- then that price is roughly $30K and it increases about $1K per month.
The potential upside is much higher. This asymmetry of risk-reward is what people should think about in their portfolio allocation.
5% allocation has 3% downside and potentially 15% upside expressed in portfolio terms. 95% UST/5% BTC yields a range of 2% worst case to 15% best case (BTC 3x in a year).
700,000 advisors will start to do this math and run playbooks for their clients looking to take a little risk to chase higher returns in this environment.
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 8, 2024 17:09:34 GMT -6
Wow recruiting talent to your nation to improve things..... as opposed to what the US is doing
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 9, 2024 12:50:53 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 9, 2024 12:51:50 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 9, 2024 13:00:58 GMT -6
holmanjp , I like this guys work I mainly have been watching these two guys Krown is the man for trading and Jason is good for macro
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 9, 2024 17:21:43 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 9, 2024 19:13:04 GMT -6
Simple explanation of the halving
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 10, 2024 13:46:55 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 11, 2024 9:50:48 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 11, 2024 11:15:07 GMT -6
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Odin
Purp1eOne
Winning
Jarl (15,623)
Feb 3, 2017
Valhalla
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Post by Purp1eOne on Apr 15, 2024 17:51:58 GMT -6
Willy Woo @woonomic The new #Bitcoin ETFs brings price targets of $91k at the bear market bottom and $650k at the bull market top once ETF investors have fully deployed according to asset manager recommendations***.
These are very conservative numbers. #Bitcoin will beat gold cap when ETFs have completed their role.
*** Note these are not targets for THIS cycle, it takes a long time for capital deployments to complete.
___
Back of the envelope calculations:
1) $100T managed by asset managers, they generally have a 2% allocation recommendation (see Fidelity). This number will rise over time, but today it's a $2T allocation into BTC.
2) BTC currently holds $561,159,959 of investment (we can measure this on-chain), new total will bring it to $2.56T of investment
3) We can use MVRV to calculate market cap vs money invested. This ratio is 5x in bull market tops and 0.7x in bear market bottoms.
4) This translates to capitalisations of $12.8T and $1.8T respectively or $650k and $91k per coin.
5) I've excluded other self custody inflows, so this is absolutely a lower bound estimation. Self custody inflows are way bigger right now.
6) Bitcoin will certainly exceed Gold capitalisation by the time asset manager capital has deployed. Gold went on a 12 year bull run when it's ETF was approved, now it's Bitcoin's turn. 6:11 AM · Apr 15, 2024 · 427.5K Views
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